對美國失望？還有加拿大呢

對美國失望？還有加拿大呢

JOHN ORTVED 報道 2012年11月06日

Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images

勞動力市場是促成移民的最普遍原因。

每過四年，就會聽到有人這麼說："如果某某共和黨人當選總統，我就移民到加拿大。"

此類宣言主要來自左派傾向的美國人，他們認為加拿大有全民醫保、文化進步，是一個自由派逃離美國共和黨的避難所。特別是一些名人，他們似乎更傾向於發表類似的宣言。

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近期，雪兒(Cher)在Twitter上宣稱（後來又刪掉了），自己無法跟米特·羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)"呼吸同樣的空氣"。蘇珊·薩蘭登(Susan Sarandon)和喬治·洛佩茲(George Lopez)都曾表示自己有可能移民到加拿大。

但有人問過加拿大人，他們會如何看待左傾美國人突然湧入加拿大這件事嗎？

"我認識的每一個加拿大人都會逃到佛羅里達州，"《環球郵報》(The Globe and Mail)海外新聞主編克雷格·奧夫曼(Craig Offman)開玩笑說，"美國人的大量湧入會引發普遍的擔心和恐慌。"

實際上，很多加拿大人會歡迎那些失望的奧巴馬支持者。"加拿大很樂意為那些鬧家務糾紛的隔壁鄰居提供安全的港灣，"作家兼藝術家道格拉斯·庫普蘭(Douglas Coupland)說，"如果有人在穿過邊境時摔倒了，我們很樂意免費為他們接骨。"

商業界也持歡迎的態度。

"我認為越多越好，"滿地可銀行(Bank of Montreal)主席羅伯特·普里乍得(Robert Prichard)補充說，"話雖如此，奧巴馬總統會贏，11月7日我們不會得到什麼特別的好處。"

加拿大作為美國人政治避難港灣的形象可以追溯到幾個世紀之前。"很多美國人在美國獨立戰爭時期開始移民加拿大。當時，聯合帝國的忠實遺民拋下一切，來到加拿大重建生活，"加拿大前副總理約翰·曼利(John Manley)說，"在那種情況下，他們屬於保守派，願意臣服於英國國王。"

但近期的歷史告訴我們，很少有人真正說到做到。

雖然據加拿大政府機構加拿大聯邦公民及移民部(Citizen and Immigration Canada)透露，喬治·W·布殊(George W. Bush)執政期間，在加拿大定居的美國人人數翻了一番，從2000年的5800人增加至2008年的1.12萬人，但研究人員表示這與大選結果無關。

"只有相對較少的人會做出艱難決定，舉家遷徙，"多倫多大學(University of Toronto)蒙克全球事務學院(Munk School of Global Affairs)院長賈尼絲·格羅斯·斯坦博士(Janice Gross Stein)說，"有一個很大的例外，那就是越南戰爭期間，很多人希望逃避服兵役。"

目前，經濟問題比政治立場重要。蒙克全球事務學院移民研究教授傑弗里·賴茨(Jeffrey Reitz) 說："加美兩國間移民最常見的原因，是就業市場。"

的確，當拉什·林博(Rush Limbaugh)和其他保守主義者在2010年借用自由派的慣用手法威脅說，如果奧巴馬醫改法方案通過的話，他們就要移民，幾乎沒有幾個人信以為真。

林博當時誓言要搬到哥斯達黎加，但下一次民主黨通過一項立法，他可能就要考慮加拿大了。加拿大並不是左派的庇護所，反而在近期開始倒向右翼。自我放逐的自由主義者要三思了。

一位在阿富汗喀布爾的加拿大記者說："我們本國的政府就是右翼政府，我們總理的以色列和巴勒斯坦政策讓羅姆尼看起來就像吉米·卡特(Jimmy Carter)。"

從2006年起，加拿大政府就被2000年由進步保守黨(Progressive Conservatives)和加拿大聯盟(Canadian Alliance)合并成立的保守黨所把持。加拿大聯盟前黨首斯托克韋爾·戴伊(Stockwell Day)表示，"到這裡來的人必須把眼睛睜得大大的，我們正在推行重大財政限制政策。"

當然，右翼是個相對的概念。瑪格麗特·溫特(Margaret Wente)是《環球郵報》讀者眾多的專欄作家。她說："這是加拿大保守主義，我們這裡也有同性戀婚姻。"

左傾的美國人仍然有機會享受到很多。在蒙特利爾長大、現居紐約的音樂家魯弗斯·溫萊特(Rufus Wainwright)說："現在，加拿大正處於過去數十年里最右傾的時期之一，對此我深為痛恨，但是即便如此，在公民自由受到的威脅這方面，還是要好很多。"

不過，一些加拿大的漸進派人士認為，志同道合的美國人紛紛向北移民，對於他們的事業，乃至整個北美大陸來說，可能最終都是取敗之道。

加拿大自由黨(Liberal Party)黨領袖鮑勃·雷(Bob Rae)表示："我認為，美國的自由派和漸進派還是應該堅守本國，為自己的理念鬥爭。"

傑里米·萊恩(Jeremy Laing)是一位時裝設計師，他的美國丈夫於2005年移民到多倫多，以便和他住在一起。萊恩說："要堅持，在美國，左翼和右翼的實力差距只在毫釐之間，哪怕一小群人移民，也會改變未來的平衡。"

萊恩說："如果有更多像我們這樣的自由派加拿大人搬到美國去，那將會有所助益。但我不會這樣做，除非我的婚姻能得到聯邦法律的認可。"

翻譯：許欣、張薇

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At a Loss? There's Always Canada

By JOHN ORTVED November 06, 2012

Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images

The labor market is the most common reason for migration.

IT'S a refrain heard every four years: "If [insert Republican name] is elected president, I'm moving to Canada."

The pledge comes mostly from left-leaning Americans who view Canada, with its universal health care and cultural progressiveness, as a liberal refuge from Red State America. Celebrities, in particular, seem prone to such declarations.

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Cher recently declared on Twitter (and later deleted) that she could not "breathe the same air" as Mitt Romney. Susan Sarandon and George Lopez have both cited Canada as a potential escape.

But has anyone asked the Canadians what they might think of a sudden influx of lefty Americans?

"Every Canadian I know will take exile in Florida," joked Craig Offman, the foreign editor of The Globe and Mail. "A massive influx of Americans would generate widespread fear and terror."

In truth, many Canadians would welcome the influx of disenchanted Obama supporters. "In Canada we're happy to provide a safe haven for next-door neighbors in the middle of a marital dispute," said Douglas Coupland, the writer and artist. "And if anyone trips while crossing the border, we're happy to set their broken bones for free."

The sentiment is echoed in business circles.

"The more the better is my view," added Robert Prichard, chairman of the Bank of Montreal. "That said, President Obama is going to win, and we won't be getting a special dividend on Nov. 7."

The image of Canada as a political haven for Americans goes back centuries. "Canada began receiving U.S. emigrants at the time of the Revolutionary War, when the United Empire Loyalists left everything behind to build lives in the north," said John Manley, a former deputy prime minister of Canada. "In that case, they were conservatives wanting to live under the king."

But recent history suggests that few actually follow through.

While the number of United States citizens who permanently reside in Canada doubled during George W. Bush's presidency (from 5,800 in 2000 to 11,200 in 2008, according toCitizen and Immigration Canada, a government agency), researchers say it had little to do with the elections.

"Relatively few people make the difficult decision to uproot themselves and their families," said Dr. Janice Gross Stein, the director of the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs. "The one big exception was the desire to avoid the draft during the Vietnam War."

These days, pocketbook issues outweigh politics. "By far the most common reason for migration between Canada and the U.S. is the labor market," said Jeffrey Reitz, a professor of immigration studies at the Munk School.

Indeed, few took Rush Limbaugh seriously when he and other conservatives borrowed a page from the liberal playbook and threatened to move if Obamacare passed in 2010.

While Mr. Limbaugh pledged to move to Costa Rica, he might consider Canada the next time Democrats pass a big piece of legislation. Rather than a leftist sanctuary, Canada has recently swung to the right, which may give liberals-in-exile pause.

"We've got a right-wing government up here too, eh," said Matthieu Aikins, a Canadian journalist who lives in Kabul, Afghanistan. "And our prime minister's policy on Israel andPalestine makes Romney look like Jimmy Carter."

Since 2006, the Canadian government has been dominated by the Conservative Party, the result of the 2000 merger between the Progressive Conservatives and the right-wing Canadian Alliance. "People would have to come with their eyes wide open," said Stockwell Day, former leader of the Canadian Alliance. "We're engaged in a program of significant fiscal restraint."

Of course, right-wing is a relative concept. "It's Canadian conservatism," said Margaret Wente, a widely read columnist for The Globe and Mail. That means few abortion restrictions, strong bank regulations and no capital punishment. "We also have gay marriage," she said.

Left-leaning Americans will still find plenty to savor. "Even though Canada is now in one of its most conservative periods in decades, which I hate, the situation would still pale considerably in terms of threatened civil liberties," said the musician Rufus Wainwright, who was raised in Montreal and now lives in New York.

Yet some Canadian progressives think it would be ultimately self-defeating, for their cause and for the continent, for like-minded Americans to decamp north.

"My plea would be for American liberals and progressives to fight the good fight at home," said Bob Rae, the leader of the opposition Liberal Party of Canada.

"Stick it out," said Jeremy Laing, a fashion designer in Toronto whose American husband emigrated in 2005 to be with Mr. Laing. "The margin between left and right in the U.S. is so slight that even a small exodus could swing the future balance.

"What would help is if more of us liberal Canadians moved to the U.S.," Mr. Laing added. "But I won't do that until my marriage is federally recognized."